The Summer 2025 edition of the Maersk Global Market Update examined how businesses are adapting to the uncertainty caused by shifting tariff landscapes and evolving global demand patterns. From the latest developments in tariff policies to China’s expanding role in international trade, this edition provided a comprehensive overview of the factors shaping container flows, sourcing decisions, and customs planning.
With volatility showing no signs of slowing, staying informed and adaptable remains key to maintaining resilience and driving growth.
Taking stock of tariffs
Since our Spring 2025 update in April, Maerk has observed the U.S. introducing, suspending, and sustaining tariffs on imports from many countries around the world. Visibility has worsened, and trade barriers have increased since the U.S. formally announced its tariff package to the world on April 2nd.
For now, most country-specific import tariffs are on hold while long-term deals are being negotiated, with deadlines approaching in July and August. However, trade tariffs still impact how companies move their cargo, particularly between the U.S. and China. On average, companies are currently paying an effective average tariff rate of approximately 21% relative to the container load on all US imports, according to Maersk’s container-weighted effective average tariff rate metric. At its peak, shortly after 2nd April, the average effective rate was 54%.
In certain supply chains, such as the automotive sector, goods and parts can cross borders five to six times during the manufacturing process. This means that the right customs plan can be a game-changer for both efficiency and price, while failing to properly prepare for customs is adding unnecessary stumbling blocks. Approximately 20% of all border delays are caused by insufficient customs preparation, according to the World Trade Organisation, which is supported by Maersk’s internal data. Maersk data also shows that most companies end up overpaying tariffs by about 5-6%, because they lack a centralized approach and overview of their customs duties.
There are essentially two things to focus on when navigating the current trade environment: you need the right supply chain design, and you need agility when it comes to your shipments. With increased uncertainty on tariffs, it is crucial for our customers that they can move goods flexibly when a window of opportunity opens for them or demand signals warrant it. Agility is a competitive advantage in times like these.
“Finished products today are complicated in that they are often being manufactured in several countries and cross borders several times. Optimising border crossings is something businesses need to take a very strategic approach to when dealing with higher trade tariffs. It all starts with good supply chain planning,” adds Karsten Kildahl.
Although the global tariff situation remains volatile and difficult to predict, getting ahead of the curve is crucial for success. Contact Maersk’s Global Trade and Customs Consultants and visit their new Trade and Tariff Studio, which utilizes AI-powered tools to identify upstream risks before they arise and provides real-time updates.
China continues to expand its role in the global economy
Looking back at the beginning of the year, global container demand grew 6.1% in Q1 2025, which is on par with previous quarters. Q2 figures are not yet final, but will reveal a high degree of volatility triggered by tariff announcements. In the Q1 Interim Report in May, Maersk forecasted 2025 global container demand to be within a wide range of –1% to 4%, with the conservative view reflecting higher tariffs and potential lower consumer spending in the second half of the year.
We have seen robust container demand growth in the first half of 2025. What played out was not completely unexpected, and we did see customers advance orders ahead of the tariff announcements. This was more common among manufacturers and less among retailers, but overall we believe that the volume shipped reflects demand. We do not notice significant inventory level increases.
The ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China, at its centre, has once again sparked political debate about whether it’s relevant for businesses in the Western hemisphere to reduce their dependency on foreign manufacturing, particularly from China, during a time of geopolitical uncertainty. Potential strategies, such as nearshoring or friendshoring, to reduce dependency on China by relocating sourcing to other areas are often discussed. Still, in reality, these geopolitical ambitions have not yet materialized significantly. Examining trade flows, Europe has steadily increased its imports from Far East Asia over the past five years in containerized ocean volumes, and when considering Far East Asia’s share of European imports. This has occurred at a time when European politicians have expressed an ambition to diversify away from China and its manufacturing prowess amid concerns about competitiveness and geopolitical tensions.
Conditions for manufacturing goods remain extremely favorable. Producer price deflation and exchange rate dynamics are among the key factors contributing to China’s export boom. Total market imports from Far East Asia constituted 51% of total European imports in 2024, compared to 49% in 2019. Intra-European imports and European imports from North America both decreased during the same period. China’s total exports in 2024 were about 25% higher than in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, with an annual compounded growth rate of about 4.5%.
Some U.S. customers have reduced their dependency on China
It wasn’t a big surprise that the trade conflict between China and the U.S. would continue under the new U.S. administration, and Maersk’s volumes from China to the U.S. show that American importers have consistently worked to decouple from China over the past few years.
In recent years we have seen a deliberate strategy from many of our large US customers to reduce import dependency from China. Many apparel and fashion customers have now reached single-digit China dependency, whilst other commodities like home improvements have a significantly higher level of Chinese manufacturing due to the nature of the goods. This is not just a short-term tactical reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions, but rather a long-term strategic move to future-proof supply chains and remain resilient.
Looking beyond the tariff impact on trade and supply chains, consumer sentiment in the US has deteriorated in recent months, aligning with a 1.8% drop in US durable goods demand in May. At its June meeting, the U.S Federal Reserve cut its 2025 forecast for US gross domestic product growth from 1.7% to 1.4%, but kept its policy interest rate steady at 4.25-4.5%.
Looking ahead, the whole world is on tariff watch in July and August, where various deadlines for potential trade deals with the US expire. The outcome of these negotiations will, of course, colour global trade and consumer sentiment in the months to come. This is something we will look into in the Autumn edition of the Maersk Global Market Update, which will be published in October. It is challenging to predict what will come next, but as the environment continues to evolve, remaining proactive and informed will be crucial to maintaining a competitive edge.
