Following today’s newsworthy Jobs Report, American Staffing Association Chief Economist Noah Yosif had the following analysis:
“Job growth, often a bright spot within recent labor market data, decelerated significantly in July, falling to its lowest monthly level since the pandemic. Along with reduced hiring, accelerating separations, and lower levels of temporary help workers, these numbers are the latest indication of a regressing labor market.
“With unemployment rising to 4.3 percent and a three-month average above 0.5 percent, the Sahm Rule has officially been triggered, raising concerns about the possibility of a recession. Although this scenario remains unlikely given the Fed’s projected timeline for interest rate cuts, the warning signs underscore the close call likely to materialize given its aggressive focus on inflation, often at the expense of labor market considerations.
“While these numbers are a weak start to the Fed’s Open Market Committee’s two-month recess, overall levels are still low enough for the labor market to stay afloat, underscoring the importance of a modest cadence in its cooling. Staffing companies have already been adjusting to lower levels of labor churn for most of the year and will need to continue treading water a little while longer as interest rates and labor market activity further stabilize.”
